Siren Call of the Unholy Land

A predictable outbreak of debate and reaction has washed over the United States and many of its allies in light of the joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran that is presently unfolding. This includes debates over what percentage of the Iranian people want to see their government overthrown against how many would fight against foreign attack, what the damage done to diplomacy in the region will be, and how dangerous the Iranian and Israeli nations are to the Middle East. What all of this is often missing, however, is geography itself. And when looked at through the lens of geography- so core a concept to understanding geopolitics that it is part of the name- something becomes apparent:

The Middle East is not a particularly vital region of the world for those who live far outside of it.

My perspective is based in North America, but much of this applies to other regions of the world too. Many countries have pivoted away from fossil fuel dependence on the Persian Gulf. The United States in particular is now the world’s largest oil and gas exporter. There is no major world power based in the Middle East nor is there one (as the endless War on Terror seems to be showing) capable of utterly dominating it. Locally rooted middle powers are the most dominant long-term actors, and they have the capacity to outlast the imperial flirtations of more outside powers with global interests.

For profit defense contracting is certainly a major influence, keeping an unbroken stream of revenue pouring in from endless conflicts, and made especially lucrative by both the United Arab Emirates and Israel’s constant addiction to behaving as interventionist powers in their near abroad. Such honeypots in turn fuel media advertisement which in turn purchases favorable coverage and lobbying. But perpetual conflicts also exist in Myanmar, the Congo, the Sahel, and, albeit frozen, the Korean Peninsula, and in none of those places is there such a drive to intervene and to internalize the struggles of various peoples as there is for the Middle East. There is a genuine and seemingly at least partially organic push by many to see the safety and even outright expansion of Israel as some kind of existential virtue on behalf of some grand civilizational struggle. Likewise, amongst opposition to this consensus, the struggle of the Palestinians has become a moral litmus test in a way few other causes are touted. How Iran is governed internally also has become interwoven into these local struggles that so many insist on making global. The push for an Israeli regional supremacism is generally given far greater credence in mainstream commentary than its inverse doppleganger. Up to and including the Wall Street Journal’s editorials salivating for the next war for Israel against NATO-aligned countries before the present is even finished.

What accounts for this constant return of the U.S. and others and the comparative enthusiasm it receives from many despite often dismal results? I would argue that it is religious identification. Numerous sects of Christians, usually Protestant in denomination (and almost always evangelical variants) view Israel as a chosen land governed by a chosen people. In alliance with the equally ideological objectives of the neoconservative movement, which is almost monomaniacally fixated on the support of Israel, they seek to disseminate a narrative of prophecy and apocalypse- a final showdown for the entire planet at the ancient battlefield of Megiddo. The Jews were chosen by the Abrahamic God to be a special people on Earth, even if Evangelicals effectively view them as a human sacrifice to usher in the Book of Revelation’s promise to bring about a final war of all that is good against all that is evil. The True Believers, who make no secret of their intentions to use the United States military as their crucible of prophecy, will enter the Kingdom of Heaven, and the rest of us evildoers will be cast down into Hell where we can no longer remind The Elect about such pesky principles such as nuance, balance of power, and the fact that geopolitics at its most rational is ultimately not about morality or absolutes. A calculation that would inevitably turn up a dim view of outside powers being involved in local Levantine power struggles.

This is an even more unhinged-albeit clearly related- version of the liberal-humanist world view of an ever-advancing wave of democratic-capitalist societies putting on the ‘right side of history’. Both, however, share a total disregard for any sort of sustainability and see human lives as expendable in the face of some grand globalist ideological project. As it is, many supposedly secular people from outside of the Middle East have still adopted a Middle East-centric world view as a kind of automatic cultural inheritance. The time to critically interrogate this baggage is now well overdue.

The monomaniacal fixation of being involved in smaller regional wars on the other side of the planet from one’s home has exposed the dangers of universalist ideology. And no part of the world seems to attract this ideology quite like the Middle East, the place where it was first born. The Abrahamist world view taught that the local and situational was to be disdained for the existential and the absolute. A world whose only distinctions were moral, not geographic or cultural. From U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee to the Mullahs in Tehran, to the wailing snake-charmers surrounding the present President in the Oval Office, all agree; the fight for the soul of the world lies in the disposition of this dry and dusky land once known as the Fertile Crescent.

The spatial focus that should be at the center of all policy priorities is rejected, and countries like the United States, who should be rooted in the Western Hemisphere or, at most, the Pacific and Atlantic littorals as an offshore balancer, is once again dragged by the baggage of someone else’s history into wading into a strip of land no more valuable than any other on the far side of the world. In the heads of the Christian Zionist, the pro-Israel activist, or the global jihadist, the center of the world lies in the Levant. Therefore, their priorities remain fixated first on what they consider the ‘Holy Land’.

But the U.S. (and many of its allies) are secular countries. The First Amendment declared that the state would have no established religion, likewise the 1797 Treaty of Tripoli explicitly disavowed that religious traditions of other nations were of interest to American diplomacy. Knowledge of the horrors of 17th Century Puritanism has prepared the new ruling class in America for the dangers of an overly ideological foreign policy. George Washington himself was primarily motivated by a non-ideological spatial conception of national interest– a legacy that would influence an entire century of U.S. foreign policy after him.

Looking forward, I would urge those who live far from the Middle East to reconsider what the concept of a Holy Land is or should be. Rejecting the cause of universal telos and apocalyptic revelation, all rational foreign policy analysts must know they should not be in the game of rapture-making but rather supporting the stability and prosperity of the homeland. Any world view that advocates for a focus on a distant land over that of one’s own home is one that engaged in a kind of treason against any rational concept of the national interest (something that must be wrestled with first as domestic politics) on behalf what is effectively a globalist mythology of eternal cosmic battle amongst abstract and otherworldly ideals.

The deserts and scrublands of the Middle East are a far cry from North America’s varied natural splendor. If I needed a holy land, this ancient and biodiverse land that contains everything from temperate rainforest to swampy bayou to wide open plains does perfectly fine. Its centrality in its own geospatial mandala must not be sacrificed to those who live amongst its abundance and yet would still place the fables of the Dead Sea above it in importance. Those who live elsewhere may come to a similar conclusion about their own lands and thus they too must resist the siren call of yet more interventions in a distant and utterly unholy land.

Interstate Anarchy and the Befuddled Monotheist

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When the subject of International Relations is taught in universities, it often opens up with a discussion of the concept of ‘anarchy’. In this specific subject’s domain, anarchy neither denotes the political philosophy nor one of the rightly less-talked about Batman villains, but rather the classic definition of realm without governance. This may seem a strange topic for a subject/major which is ostensibly about state to state interaction, but what it effectively means is that there is no over-arching governing structure above that of states.

Protestations that this is not the case because of the UN or ‘values and norms’ should always be met with derision. After all, big states don’t have to do anything the UN tells them too, little ones often do depending on their relations with bigger powers.

Despite being an important introductory concept, I tend to find it is one that many people, not just entry-level students, struggle with. In earlier posts I have mentioned how common place but also delusional the Anglo-American view of a progressive international realm moving in a linear direction is, but I have yet to articulate why this is often the case. I can put it simply, believing in one ultimate power is akin to committing intellectual and suicide for the person seeking to understand strategy.

Even before the world was integrated and largely aware of, well, the rest of everyone outside of a particular region’s existence, where a single dominant power form of unipolarity could often rise a la Rome at its height or the Chinese Han or Tang Dynasties, such arrangements were not assumed to be perpetual perfections of humanity. Rather, the security they provided was a fragile construct worth defending…until it wasn’t anymore because the consensus upholding it had broken down. The Han were aware of the Qin before them, the Tang would be aware of the Han, and so on. Confucianism, often a boring conservative philosophy on so many issues, rightly predicted that no order, no matter how perfect, could last forever or be immune to change. The Byzantine Empire certainly recalled its glory days by never giving up the title of Romans even if they had long since left Rome itself behind.

Such unipolar arrangements are rare. Since 1991 we have seen arguably the only one to ever span the entire planet. It will not last forever. It once was taken for granted that it would by the complacent chattering classes of liberalism and conservatism alike, but now enough reality has set in that we face something just as bad-denial giving way to impotent rage and divisive fury. Where did America go wrong? Who is to blame?

Well, America is to blame. Just as the Cold War gave it the spending priorities and mobilization to build a space program and first class infrastructure, so too did unipolarity give it lazy navel-gazing narcissism. This is a process that happens to all powers (sorry, exceptionalists) but can either be delayed or accelerated by a variety of factors. One of them is buying into your own mythology. When your advertising brand becomes your very existential core of existence believed by the governing class itself, you have a problem.

The United States, like Britain before it and other spectacularly insecure powers, viewed itself as apart of history. A moral titan reshaping the world with the righteous energy of Christian values and liberal politics. But as is usual in politics, righteousness is really a code word for ‘strategically toxic and anti-intellectual while still being just as coercive as any other order.’ Herein lies the problem: cultures who believe (either actually or symbolically) in one absolute higher power suffer from massive handicaps to much of the population when it comes to getting the inter-state system and the ever-present anarchy that is an inevitable part of it.

The United States may be the most powerful state which has ever existed in all of human history. For all we know it might continue to be so for decades or even a century if one is being generous. It still does not rule the world. Nor could it. It merely can get away with more for less. That is what power really is in the end, the ability to shift the world’s various circumstances in one way rather than another through intention. It is why it is an invaluable, if incalculable, resource. An invisible resource created only by very real material ones.

And it matters because there is no authority. There is no God here. This is international relations- a realm of little highly specific gods whose fickle natures and epic, tragic feuds are the stuff of legend. As fortune weaves out fate their various importance in the hierarchy rise and fall accordingly. They uphold no values but that which geography and history gave to them, much like representative deities of specific regions, lifestyles, and careers. Or like packs of social and competitive animals. Much like the illusion of order is given by the United Nations, Mount Olympus is an imposing location of projected celestial unity which under closer scrutiny gives way to the back-halls of scheming and backstabbing. Comedy and tragedy abound in equal and intertwined measure.

And yet we treat the act of wishing this away for supernatural or philosophical paternalism as one of principle and heroism. It is anything but. It is in fact cowardice. The fear of the unknown, the fear of not being the good guy. But what we need is exactly people who are willing and able to see themselves as the villains in someone else’s story, and still be willing to carry one regardless. Maybe even revel in it a bit.

This is not a world of universal morality or high ideals. It never could be. It is a state of anarchy, and it is also a state of philosophical and circumstantial polytheism. This means that as far as an intellectual understanding goes, some cultures are better equipped than others to understand the fundamental principles of IR in both theory and practice. Obviously, many great strategists exist in all literate cultures, so its not a supressive effect. We do have Cardinal Richelieu after all. But in the Muslim and especially Christian worlds, those strategists were thinking against the currents of their time and often regarded as highly scandalous, whereas in non-monotheistic cultures such strategists were a utilitarian novelty. This is less an issue about strategists themselves than one of non-strategists learning about or from them. I do not find it a pure accident that the only sane person on foreign policy issues in the US congress right now is a Hindu.

In a world where the public (and often times even more the private) educational system emphasizes the inherited baggage of monotheism and its secular surrogates it risks creating a population of people with absolute opinions and no practical way to achieve them. As it is, most internet political culture in countries like America and those of Western Europe has become one where the greatest posturer is regarded as the default winner, rather than people who actually accomplish things. Specifically on foreign policy it creates a right wing addicted to war and a left wing addicted to war-like things which are not claimed to be wars but rather ‘interventions.’ This is because paying homage to some nonexistent order is regarded as more important than the more morally ambiguous and complicating of simply living the life of a hypersocial and tribal animal. ‘We have to do something’, they say, ‘it is our responsibility to uphold this order.’ They ignore that in domestic politics the state serves as the final arbiter, and their moralism can be translated into legalese and upheld. It is not so in the international realm.

I often make jokes at the expense of conservatives overfond of America/Rome analogies. The two societies are really nothing alike and its mostly a way for BHB’s to pretend to be educated about the past. But if you are going to make one, here it is: It is telling that the Roman Empire adopted Christianity most likely in an attempt to shore up a declining state by having a uniform religion. What actually happened though was that the need for uniform views itself led to internal strife unlike that ever seen in the pagan days, with theologians at each others throats and various factions only happy enough to jump right in, eventually expanding their disputes to competing foreign peoples. It was a conversion whose only real strategic effect was a massive amount of irony. Monotheism cannot even make itself true in a unipolar order. In fact, one could make the case that unipolarity increases the need for a more ‘polytheistic’ approach to strategic thought, as to acknowledge a state of nature beyond human ideals and aspirations is to be on guard against complacency.

And yes, I know about Niebuhr. And yes, I am unimpressed. Because you are still just kicking the can down the road ineffectually if your argument is ‘humanity is just so rotten we can’t see the glorious unity of order and can’t take part in it until we die.’ Because there is nothing rotten about any of this. It is just how it is. People may call my views cynical, but the fact is I accept humanity as it is and don’t pretend it can or even should be something else, here or postmortem. It is what it is, get used to it. There is nothing ‘wrong’ with a multi-polar world, and there is everything right with one when it comes to debate, discussion, and diversity of ideas. But, the unipolar world only works when it acknowledges itself as a freak occurrence or a product of circumstance, not as a harbinger of world order and morality (also somehow conflated with economics by 20th century powers to ridiculous degrees). The more unipolar the world, the greater the necessity for a more diversified understanding of values and politics. It is worth remembering that at the end of the Finnish epic ‘The Kalevala’, Vainamoinen is being banished from the world by the arrival of magical baby (the Christian religion), yet he swears one day his people will need him and he will return.

After all, the trickster, the theme element of this blog, could not exist in a world of black and white and universal order. It would be an irrelevant concept. And yet the people who stand the test of time as thinkers were often those who stood against their own era’s received wisdom. But look around you in both folk legend and real life and you will see tricksters everywhere. Probably having a pretty good time too. And if not, making some over serious person have a bad time, which is just as good. There is a reason the myths and legends from cultures with many gods are always more fun to read anyway, it speaks to our actual multi-faceted experience in the real world.