The Worst Number of Parties is Two

Tim Kreider, 2002. Some things never change.

Despite the sometimes intense instability of coalition governments, I generally have a view that the more political parties there are in a system the better. While it is true that there are often broad and predictable coalitions, the mere possibility of surprise single-issue or bloc based re-alignments can do a lot to combat complacency. To imagine how this would work in the current American system picture a world where the Greens and Libertarians have enough pull in Congress to sway close votes. They might side with one big party or another in a predictable fashion on economic or regulatory policy, sure, but both would likely throw their weight behind whoever was the opposition when issues related to foreign policy or surveillance came up. Trump’s current attack on Due Process would be opposed by both, for example, tipping the scales away from the Republican government. Likewise, Democratic efforts to sabotage diplomacy (a la Cuck Schemer on Iran or Adam Schiff on Russia) would also see both Greens and Libertarians ally with Republicans to overturn such knee jerk platitudes.

This does not mean, however, that more is always better. I can think of one arrangement where less parties is better than more: And that is that one Party is probably better than two. At least in times of intense partisanship in the media.

This seems a strange position to take. I do not take it in defense of one party states, which I generally oppose unless a state is newly founded (see Kemalist Turkey or post-unification Vietnam). I take this position because two parties is just so unrelentingly awful.

The reason two can become worse than one is that it effectively functions as a single party state in that the broad consensus keeps ticking on unchallenged while the pantomime of free choice is pushed front and center. Picked up by a media both pliant and partisan, the most inconsequential of differences are held up as vital decision points. This has the bizarre effect, as we see all around us today, of radicalizing the ignorant in ways where their radicalization actually supports the establishment of both parties. Any cultural flashpoint or nakedly partisan example of corruption is held up to be the end all be all, while the machine of private contractor grifting and surveillance creep expands at an ever growing clip. The relatively minor differences between the parties creates a yawning cavern of difference between voters too dumb to see they have more in common with the opposite-party rubes than they do with their own leadership.

Reverse partisanship is another bizarre aspect of this phenomenon. In just the past decade (and ignoring all the many examples prior to that) we have seen two party systems across the world basically reverse entire positions almost overnight simply because an upset in the other party triggered their oppositional defiance disorder. The focus of the neoconservative movement went from Republican to Democrat in about two years as preparation for what they saw as an inevitable Hillary Clinton Presidency. Choosing negotiation over reflexive war and sanctions was once a strongly Democrat coded position, but now that Trump exploited the neoconservative realignment to take over the GOP it is the Democrats who come across as the party of Freedom Fries. Meanwhile, the Democratic embrace of Clintonian neoliberal economics led to a (utterly false) GOP pivot towards claiming the mantle of populism…but now that The Big Beautiful Bill is passed and that claim is exposed as utterly hollow, one expects another reversal for both parties around austerity. The tariff issue has really driven this home for both parties recently, with people contradicting their views on trade multiple times in the same month.

As mentioned before, these pivots do nothing to challenge the bipartisan establishment, but they do make the populace more stupid. How many extended family members or second tier friends do you have that parrot talking points they would have been adamantly opposed to just a few years ago simply because their party-coded media has reversed position? In most instances they seem incapable of even acknowledging this if it is pointed out, with uncomfortable silence standing in for their utterly hollow engagement with the pantomime of partisanship. It is a confession of nonsentience. The regime rules through the endless dance, the dittohead serves as its thuggish yet cowardly enforcer in the public sphere.

One of the weirder things you will notice when traveling to a state that bans parties or has only one is that, in general, the average person is much more in touch with reality. There may be things they cannot say in public, and they may long for a viable opposition, but there is a certain honest cynicism from the government supporters that they back the regime because they personally benefit from it. Likewise, the opposition to it shares a kind of inclusiveness and solidarity that they are all in this together. Distrust of canned media narratives are, I find, far higher in these societies than in my own. There is almost a reflexive private trend to disbelieve all official sources. Though this obviously comes with its downside, it is a preferable state of being for the cultivation of critical thought than those who mindlessly parrot the media of who they imagine to be their co-ideologues. That they imagine themselves as free and rational while doing so makes it all the more galling.

Compared to two party states, one party states are total amateurs when it comes to nullifying opposition and setting unquestioned media narratives.

Maybe a slight lyrical revision to Three Dog Night’s hit is in order.

For Every Cheney Gained, A Million Voters Lost

Look, I know there is a deluge of unthought pieces all jumping on the post-election fallout train. So out of respect for your time and mine I will keep this extremely short and to the point. There will be no flowery exhortations or attempts to make some greater point about existentialism or transformative moments or whatever.

First point, per the NYT of all places:

German style fascism or 19th Century American eugenics this is not. I have my concerns with another Trump administration and will vocalize them when they become relevant, but racial and identity politics is over for the left and liberals alike. They are hemorrhaging everyone demographically. No one likes to be constantly lectured by an upper class of HR managers. Trump is making gains across the board with minorities, Democrats lose everyone without a college education. The PMC doubles down while everyone else jumps ship.

Stemming from that point: Harris didn’t lose because she was a racially diverse female. She lost because she was a terrible candidate untested by a primary in this cycle, who had badly lost an amazingly well funded primary last cycle. She, along with being unable to to see American interests as distinct from Israeli ones, will go down as Biden’s biggest mistake. Harris could have differentiated herself from Biden’s ever more unpopular administration once she had it in the bag too, and refused to do so. A primary would have likely removed her and had someone more capable of running at the national election.

Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib won their reelections by a comfortable margin. The largest concertation of Arab Americans in Dearborn Michigan voted for Trump and heavily for Stein. While I am not going to say most elections are foreign policy elections, it plays a much larger role than the chattering classes think. It may have been the geographically decisive element of the 2016 election when considering that counties in swing states with high War on Terror casualty rates broke for Trump even when they had been for Obama before, and absolutely underlined the 2008 blowout. Candidates perceived as more hawkish have lost continuously since 2008 onwards.

Before the 2016 election Chuck Schumer said: “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” The party has never moved on from this mindset. Which is insane considering how much it has already cost them. When Bill Clinton killed the party of FDR in 1992 he replaced it with a party of Patrick Batemans and the cast of The View. This meant no one was looking out for working class interests. Are the Republicans going to? Of course not. But they can signal that they are and embrace some trade protectionism to help domestic industry, and this tiny rhetorical concession comes across as preferable to many than Democratic waffle and outright disdain for everyone who doesn’t live in a media-saturated metro area. Meanwhile, many popular poverty-alleviating policies were phased out recently, leading to a massive increase in child poverty. All while defense budgets continued to balloon and Harris not only received the endorsement of Dick and Liz Cheney but actively touted and campaigned with it. This was a promise of more stupid wars of choice, funded possibly by austerity at home. We might still get that with Trump, but he didn’t promise it on the campaign trail.

The American elite desperately needs a foreign policy reality check. Elections and parties pale in comparison to diminishing industrial and economic capacity compared to so many proportionally growing states around the world. The age of liberal hegemony is over. Its legacy is ruined lives at home and abroad, a massive privacy breaching surveillance state, offshoring of industry, global instability, and a Pentagon that can not even be audited. The more one runs to defend this rotting system, the more one will be punished for it electorally. Voters may not know what to do about the problems, but they know they are there. This puts them ahead of most of the media and financial elite. The more centrist candidate has lost every Presidential election in the 21rst Century with the possible exception of 2020 (and that one had Biden tied in with unions at least in a break from typical Clintonian trends).

Who even was the President the last few years? In actuality? It was obvious to everyone outside the lib-media bubble that Biden’s brain was not functioning as early as the last election. The rapidity of the decline only grew. Up until it became undeniable in the most impactful Presidential debate in history the media denied this was the case before suddenly about facing and saying it was obvious there was a problem. Has Jake Sullivan been ruling us the entire time? Or has the system just been chugging along on auto pilot?

All of these points save the last one were made in the aftermath of 2016, including by myself. Libs refused to listen. Their media echo chambers cast all contradictory information as either false or simply deny it exists. And they have the gall to still pretend they are the most informed and best educated people in society. They are in fact as indoctrinated as any megachurch parishioner. The American people and the world at large may deserve better than Republican chauvinism, but the Democratic coalition is not better overall and significantly more out of touch with people outside of their immediate social circle. They have shown, time and time again, an utter inability to learn and adapt. I am already expecting a doubling down of everything they did before. Blaming voters, blaming minorities, blaming foreign countries. Everyone but themselves. But they have only themselves to blame.

And you know what? It works for a lot of them. NGOs fundraise more when Trump is on office. The media secretly loves him as more people watch dying legacy networks and consume legacy print when he is their bogeyman. They profit directly from ‘resisting’ him. Every bit the reality show actors that Trump is, the loyal opposition has an opportunity to fundraise like never before. I’m sure there are some of them who even like losing, it being so lucrative and without the dangers of having to take responsibility for policy failures.

Just remember that politics is local before its national, and systemic before it is partisan. You can work with your neighbors to make life better near you more effectively than voting at the national level will ever deliver something. And in international politics America’s fading protagonist syndrome should not blind us that systemic trends continue onwards independently of what voters think. In my own small way I remain working towards envisioning a foreign policy of realism and restraint which can benefit the average citizen and reign in an out of control establishment. I have and will work towards that goal regardless of the figurehead party in power.

My somewhat controversial take in realism and restraint circles was that Harris would be better for us, as her inevitable failures would drag both the Democratic establishment and the neoconservative Republicans down with her, whereas a Trump Administration causes opposition to further rally around neoconservatism, and while it might adopt our rhetoric but escalate in the Middle East, making us look like fools. I trust none of these people and you shouldn’t either. So this is not ideal for me. I can only hope Vance influences Trump to keep Lina Khan in the government. She is the one genuinely good thing in American administrative governance in the past decade. If she ran for high office I would support her.

Anyway, I never had a strong read on this election or how it would go. Under duress I made a prediction: Harris wins electoral, Trump wins popular. If my prediction was wrong I had to post some 2016-2020 lib cringe. So here, my penance:

P.S.

Deep down inside you know Hillary is secretly happy, and Meatball Ron is utterly devastated. If politicians can be cynically calculating, why can’t voters? Play the long game everyone, opportunities always abound. Look for them wherever they may arise in the chaos of events