The Case For (Temporary) Single Issue Voting

Despite being outspent 8 to 1 and having a litany of ridiculous beliefs such as that Thanksgiving should be ‘cancelled’, Francesca Hong came within half a percentage point of winning her Democratic Primary. Despite being outspent over 10 to 1 and facing a blatantly hostile media, Abdul El-Sayed defeated The Fetterwoman by about a percentage point. In all of these elections, AIPAC spending is a factor, with the money buying immense media coverage in the favorable direction while simultaneously increasingly becoming a liability with average voters, especially younger voters. The next Democratic Presidential primary is almost certainly going to have the US-Israeli alliance as a key element of its inevitable establishment vs anti-establishment contest.

I am not, myself, someone who has ever been a single issue voter in the past. I am one now, and that issue is the US-Israeli Alliance. And, increasingly, I suspect that I am not alone. I want to explain why this change is happening for at least some people and why it is necessary that it happens.

Through the practice of lobbying, organized corruption in the United States is legal. This is particularly true for foreign-aligned lobbies. Contrary to how fans of large permanent alliances sell the issue, it is through this method that allies are given a pass to influence America, while rivals remain far more surveilled (and rightly). As was warned by Washington, this distorts both grand strategy and the ability of a republic to engage in honest debate about how to conduct its policies and risks having the very sovereignty of the voters violated by nations the media insists are our greatest friends.

Of all the many quagmires the over-extended and hollowed out American Empire gets itself into, the Middle East interventions are both the worst in terms of outcome and among the least necessary by any strategic measure. In fact, as we currently see with global oil prices, the one reason to be involved in this region, oil, is now the one thing most directly adversely affected by US policy. No single power can dominate the region anyway, and yet many of the U.S. old guard insist on trying to make Israel the dominant power in the region anyway, policies that have already led to the forming of power blocs that are both autonomous of US-Israeli interests as well as Iranian ones, as we saw this very week. U.S. backing for Israel enables its most expansionist impulses and removes the obvious necessity for such a small country, no matter how qualitatively strong it may be, to seek a sustainable balance of power in its near abroad. Rather it appears to be going for broke, pushing in a way that introduces contradictions and dangers in other U.S. relationships. This guarantees that the more the alliance is adhered to, the more wars of choice the U.S. will fight.

Furthermore, the domestic actors in the United States most attached to the Israeli state are almost always in overlap with other odious causes, from Evangelicals pining for theocracy and apocalypse to the military industrial complex and mass surveillance companies such as Palantir who piggyback on the IDF to train their models and prepare a mass dystopia for export abroad to their home countries.

Additionally, both party establishments of a dying two party system that no thinking person rightly believes in are wedded to the alliance like no other issue. It seems to be the ultimate litmus test for those capable of adaptation versus those who are not. To strike a blow against this alliance is to strike a blow against an archaic bipartisan consensus.

All of this, taken together, implies that the issue of the single greatest import, from gas prices, war and peace, surveillance, sovereignty, and corruption is that of AIPAC funding in elections and fervent commitment to the ruinous U.S.-Israel alliance. One can potentially strike a blow against all of these if enough candidates advance enough laws in the legislature to eventually force the issue in a favorable direction. It is a long term process, but one that should have been well underway years ago already.

But here I can sense one objection: “Aren’t you obsessed with Israel? What about the UAE or Saudi Arabia or Ukraine?” Ignoring that the side most obsessed with Israel is the side who wants to fund and fight for it to the hilt, the actual answer to this is the capstone to the entire argument. Pulling a cue from Karl Rove’s election strategy of attacking an opponents strength to undermine the entirety of their platform, I say this: If you do not want endless wars and entangling alliances, if you attack the most sacred and holy alliance and succeed in undermining it, you have already set up the doom of all the other alliances you don’t like. If America can be made to become ambivalent on Israel, it can all the more easily be made to drop being overly attached to the Gulf States, Ukraine, and whoever else you want on the chopping block. The inverse, as proven by the failed foreign policy pivot of the ‘new right’ on Republican politics, does not work. They can talk a big game on Ukraine or Pakistan or whoever, but always if they ignore the biggest offender in the room they get sucked into Israel and then end up right back with the rest of them too.

This answers another question. El-Sayed sucks on Ukraine, but for the reasons above I have prioritized Israel over Ukraine. Given his opponent in the general election is a neoconservative bitter ender, were I a Michigander I would crawl over broken glass to vote for him. If Hong, a far worse candidate, had won her race I would have done the same for her. My favorite sitting Democrat right now is Ro Khanna, who also has questionable views on Ukraine. It doesn’t matter so long as we are fighting a schizophrenic war of choice with Iran.

It goes the other way, too. I am an independent after all. AIPAC bought a House seat in Kentucky from Massie in front of everyone. As generational change occurs, this fight will only become bigger in the right as well. All Republican races where there is an AIPAC-funded candidate vs one where there is not make the choice clear. And now as we move on to the general election, the very party does not matter. I recommend looking for who is funding which candidate regardless of their party, and voting accordingly. If you value sovereignty and opposing reckless adventurism, it is the first and ultimate litmus test any candidate has to pass. If neither pass (as has been common in so many of our recent Presidential elections), third party is the correct vote.

This is the issue to attack the complacent assumptions of so many things, both foreign and domestic. It is not that it stands as a singularity in its own right so much as it overlaps with so much else. And it is, until we get out of direct Middle East interventionism, the sole issue I will be voting on. Despite my extreme hostility to both wings of the culture war, I would vote even for a noxious culture warrior who was good on this issue over someone who wasn’t. I would vote for someone with totally different views on economic policy as myself on this line as well. While I remain extremely skeptical of voting’s power over indirect influence networks, if this is all we have let us start where it hurts the architects of our present misery most: their most sacred cow of Israel.

Solutions From Hell: The Return of the Liberal John Bolton

samantha power

Bolton the War Walrus is out, and while his damage is done the world is still better off with his absence near the levers of power. But as one entrenched ghoul of a dying school of foreign policy retreats, another rises to take their place. A shinier, brighter, more urban and diplomatic version of such policies…but under the surface a similar beast nonetheless. This beast, skeletal head rearing from long sleep upon its lich-like throne, is Samantha Power.

I have no plans to read yet another establishment book endorsed by the likes of Thomas Friedman-something that would surely be regarded as the kiss of death in any sane society. You can read about it indirectly for yourself here if you wish. This is not a book review or even a commentary on her past publications, one of which I have read. No, it’s about what this book tour portends.

You see, the public is finally starting to turn against the ruinous tide of ever-expanding American military involvement abroad. It is unsustainable, it is dangerous, it creates power vacuums filled with even worse actors than the ones removed, and it fuels the refugee crisis (and thus the far right). Indeed, a strong case could be made for it being the truly decisive and quantifiable issue in the exploding Hindenburg airship levels of upset that was the 2016 election. Tulsi is back on the debate stage for the near future and Bernie and Warren are starting to make noises about coming around to many of her positions. Trump ran on some of these critiques of foreign policy though obviously most of his rhetoric was hollow. But he is president and the uber-hawk of Hillary Clinton will never grace high office again unless we start electing deadites. It is logical after continuous failures on the part of the foreign policy establishment since at least (being generous here) 2003 that a reconning is overdue. You could neither explain to the average American what they have benefited from all of this much less the average person in the countries we have destroyed.

With the stark absolutism of the right now holding the reigns of executive power incompetently it is only a matter of time that this wounded but still very influential network of operators sees a chance to re-engage the conversation for more American Exceptionalism and more operations of questionable strategic value in an upcoming Democratic administration. Naturally, self-interest as rhetoric becomes replaced with humanitarian intervention. You know, like in Libya, the intervention Samantha Power did everything she could to help bring about. The one that has re-introduced chattel slavery to North Africa and given Al Qaeda a new home base of operations between the factions of warlords scrabbling over the corpse of a nation. Obama himself was eventually rumored to lump Samantha Power into what he deemed ‘the stupid shit caucus’ though he still bears blame for letting such actors influence him. He would go on in later interviews to imply that Libya was his administration’s greatest mistake.

Power is a smart and serious academic if obviously one so beholden to the discredited doctrine of liberal hegemony. Though it is telling that even in her earlier and more earnest work the ultimate example she gives of the horrors on non-intervention is Rwanda, a country that is far better off after its war compared to where it was before than any nation of recent American intervention. I do believe that she has the smarts to know some of what she says about her time in policymaking is rhetorically embellished and, more importantly, I do think she is capable of self-reflection. This makes the apparent timing and self-hagiographic nature of her new book even more alarming. As multiple reviews of her newest work have pointed out, she barely mentions Libya, the arming of jihadists in Syria, or the Obama administration’s tacit support of Saudi Arabia’s campaigns of nation-wide extermination in Yemen. So what is going on here?

In summary: she thinks she will be national security adviser or secretary of state in a near future Democratic administration. She is putting herself out there to catch someone’s eye in either this cycle or the next.

If you are like me and opposed to the entire trend of 21rst Century American foreign policy, this cannot be allowed to happen. We already barely survived Bolton, we can’t afford the slicker and more subtle version more likely to win over undecideds on this issue. And make no mistake, despite the intentions, the results as shown time and time again are the same. Humanitarian intervention on a global scale is liberal hegemony which is, in turn, neconservative militarism and a bonanza for for-profit military contractors. Same results in increases in refugees, terrorism, right-wing nativism, and the like. It has happened to many times in recent memory alone to be worth recounting here, and worse of all to the strategist, it is not even helpful for American power projection. As I have argued before, it is, in fact, detrimental to the long term sustainability of the world position of the United States.

So pay close attention to which campaign Samantha Power, Lich of Humanitarianism, grafts her phylactery to. I would be willing to bet that Kamala Harris and Jow Biden are her top two choices. And in a universe where the bad Barney the Dinosaur impersonator Cory Booker and the absolute nonentity Beto O’Rourke actually stood a chance probably them too. If Power is there, that campaign is not worth supporting if you want real change on the foreign policy front.

And be prepared for Samantha Power to take the still-warm seat of John Bolton, if not in terms of the actual office, then in the role played in the mind’s eye of the populace. The public face of endless war.

 

Post Midterm Predictions

Since the mid terms went pretty much exactly as I predicted (house to dems, GOP keeps senate) I’m feeling my prognosis game back on after it derailed a bit 2 years ago (though not as derailed as most people’s were)…so here are some of my predictions for the next two years:

-Opposition party taking the house but not the Senate in a mid term is weird and won’t mean much for any sides’ commentary in the next week.

-There will be a concerted push by a faction of the Dems to run Beto for president against Trump in 2020…despite the fact that Beto lost to Cruz…a guy who previously already lost to Trump.

-On that note, the fact that a nationally famous incumbent republican senator in Texas had such a close race opens up the possibility that this is Cruz’s last term and that he will retire or not run again next time lest he have future career prospects ruined by being Santorum’d. Very possible he gets out while still ahead to become the new Gingrich type media gadfly that occasionally runs for president.

-If you thought Pelosi underperformed as speaker from 2007-2011…well get ready for a whole new level of bumbling incompetence.

-That guy that offed Cantor a few years ago got offed himself, which shows how fast people turn on the Teabag types now that they are already old news.

-Now that Mitt Romney is a senator, we will all have to suffer through the media fawning that will occur when he ‘stands up to Trump’ (while voting overwhelmingly with him) and his approval rating, like Bush’s, will skyrocket with Democrats but not, tellingly, with Republicans.

-The interesting fight still remains inside the Democratic party, who has not yet decided what it stands for, if anything.

-Tom Cotton will continue to be the pinnacle of awfulness to which all the worst ghouls in either party can only aspire.